Your Money is Losing Value Faster than What the Government Told You

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to gauge the inflation rate of a country. As we all know, inflation rate determines how fast our money is losing its purchasing power over time. Just because of this reason alone, the government of a country is tend to report a lower inflation rate based on a new methodology to calculate the CPI. That's why an annual increment of just 5% for our salaries is not a good deal after all considering this fact. This goes to our investments as well. Perhaps, next time when you put your money into an investment that offers less than 10% per annum, think again.

(Let's look at an article by Fred Kaifosh, B.Sc, M.Sc(Biochemistry), M.B.A. to illustrate this.)

From an investor's perspective, the CPI, as a proxy for inflation, is a critical input that can be used to estimate the total return, on a nominal basis, required for an investor to meet his or her financial goals.

For several years, there has been controversy about whether the CPI overstates or understates inflation, how it is measured and whether it is an appropriate proxy for inflation. Read on to learn more about this controversy and how its implications affect investors.

The Controversy
Originally, the CPI was determined by comparing the price, in two different periods, of a fixed basket of goods and services. Determined as such, the CPI was a cost of goods index (COGI). However, over time, the U.S. Congress embraced the view that the CPI should reflect changes in the cost to maintain a constant standard of living. Consequently, the CPI has been moving toward becoming a cost of living index (COLI).

Over the years, the methodology used to calculate the CPI has also undergone numerous revisions. According to the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the changes removed biases that caused the CPI to overstate the inflation rate. The new methodology takes into account changes in the quality of goods and substitution. Substitution, the change in purchases by consumers in response to price changes, changes the relative weighting of the goods in the basket. The overall result tends to be a lower CPI. However, critics view the methodological changes and the switch from a COGI to a COLI focus as a purposeful manipulation that allows the U.S. government to report a lower CPI.

John Williams, a U.S. economist, described his view of this manipulation when he was interviewed in early 2006. Williams prefers a CPI, or inflation measure, calculated using the original methodology based on a basket of goods having quantities and qualities fixed.

David Ranson, another U.S. economist, also questions the official CPI's viability as an indicator of inflation. Unlike Williams, Ranson doesn't espouse the viewpoint that the CPI is being manipulated. Instead, his view is that the CPI is a lagging indicator of inflation and is not a good indicator of current inflation. According to Ranson, increases in the price of commodities are a better indicator of current inflation because inflation initially affects commodity prices and it may take several years for this commodity inflation to work its way through an economy and be reflected in the CPI. Ranson’s preferred inflation measure is based on a commodity basket of precious metals.

What is immediately apparent is that three different definitions of the CPI are being used. Since these definitions are not operationally equivalent, each method of measuring inflation would lead to different results.

Different CPI or Inflation Levels
It does appear that the differing means of measuring inflation produce disparate indications of inflation for the same period. The November 2006 Consumer Price Index Summary, which is published by the BLS, stated that "During the first 11 months of 2006, the CPI-U rose at a 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)". Williams' estimate of CPI for the same period was 5.3%, while Ranson's reported an 8.2% estimate.

The differences between the BLS CPI and the figures attained by Williams and Ranson would be of sufficient magnitude, that if the CPI is being manipulated downward, the outcome of an investment plan could be less than effective. Therefore, a prudent investor may wish to obtain more insight and a better understanding of these disparate views of CPI and inflation measures and the effects they may have on their investment decisions.

Implications for the GDP
The GDP, as an indicator of economic growth and the strength of an economy, is an important input for investors. The CPI plays a role in the determination of the real GDP; therefore, manipulation of the CPI could imply manipulation of the GDP because the CPI is used to deflate some of the nominal GDP components for the effects of inflation. CPI and GDP have an inverse relationship, so a lower CPI - and its inverse effect on GDP - could suggest to investors that the economy is stronger and healthier than it really is.

Looking Deeper
Governments also use the CPI to set future expenditure. Many government expenses are based on the CPI and, therefore, any lowering of the CPI would have a significant effect on future government expenditures.

A lower CPI provides at least two major benefits to the government:

1. Many government payments, such as Social Security and the returns from TIPS, are linked to the level of the CPI; therefore, a lower CPI translates into lower payments - and lower government expenditures.

2. The CPI deflates some components used to calculate the real GDP - a lower inflation rate makes the economy look better than it really is.

In other words, if the true rate of inflation is higher than the CPI as the government calculates it, then an investor's real rate of return will be less than originally expected, as the unplanned amount of inflation eats away at gains.

Factors Contributing to the Controversy
Many of the factors contributing to the CPI controversy are shrouded in complexities related to statistical methodology. Other major contributors to the controversy hinge on the definition of inflation and the fact that inflation must be measured by proxy.

The BLS describes the CPI as a measure of the average change in price over time of goods and services purchased by households on an average day-to-day basis. The BLS uses a cost of living framework to guide its decisions regarding the statistical procedures used to determine the CPI. This means that the inflation rate indicated by the CPI reflects the changes in the cost of living or the cost of maintaining a fixed standard of living. In other words, it is a cost-of-living index (COLI).

CPI and Consumer Behavior
To illustrate a simplified example on the effect of consumer behavior and different calculation methodologies on the CPI, assume the following scenario where substitution occurs at the item level within a category, in keeping with the BLS methodology.

Suppose that the only consumer good is beef. There are only two different cuts available; filet mignon (FM) and t-bone steak (TS). In the prior period, when prices and consumption were last measured, only FM was purchased and the price of TS was 10% less than the price of FM. When next measured, prices had increased 10%. A set of prices have been constructed to reflect this scenario and are presented in the table below.

Product	Price Per Pound Before Increase	Price Per Pound After Increase	Price Increase
Filet Mignon	$9.90	$10.89	10%
T-Bone Steak	$9.00	$9.90	10%

The CPI, or inflation, for this contrived scenario is calculated as the increase in the cost of a constant quantity and quality of beef, or a fixed basket of goods. The inflation rate is 10%. This is essentially the way the CPI was originally calculated by the BLS. It is the methodology used by Williams. This method is unaffected by whether consumers change their buying habits in response to a price increase.

The current BLS methodology of calculating CPI takes into account changes in consumer purchasing preferences. In the simplified example presented, if there is no change in consumer behavior, then the calculated CPI would be 10%. This result is identical to that obtained with the fixed basket method used by Williams. However, if consumers change their purchasing behavior and fully substitute TS for FM, the CPI will be 0%. If consumer reduce their purchases of FM by 50% and purchase TS instead, the BLS calculated CPI will be 5%.

The previous calculations showed that the CPI methodology used by the BLS, given the scenario and consumer behaviors as described above, result in a CPI that depends on consumer behavior. Furthermore, an inflation level that is lower than an observed price increase can be measured. Although this example is contrived, similar effects in the real world are definitely within the realm of possibility.

What Should Investors Do?
Investors could use the official CPI numbers, accepting the government reported figures at face value. Alternatively, investors are faced with choosing either Williams' or Ranson's measure of inflation, implicitly accepting the argument that the officially reported figures are bogus. Therefore, it is up to investors to become informed on the topic and take their own stance in the issue.

Different CPI levels, for a single price increase, depending upon consumer behavior, can be calculated using the BLS methodology, and it is not implausible that, depending upon consumption patterns, different rates of inflation may be experienced by a consumer. Therefore, the answer may be investor specific.

What's the Implication of Lina Joy's Verdict?

The Federal Court may has its final verdict. I have no objections over the court decision on National Registration Department (NRD) action of not allowing Lina removed the word "Islam" from her MyKad. Since Chief Justice Ahmad Fairuz Sheikh Abdul Halim ruled that jurisdiction remains with the Syariah court.

But the questions remained. Is Lina Joy a real convert in the face of law by just baptizing in church? If not, can she really go through a proper channel to lawfully renounce Islam in Malaysia? Since NRD said it needed a Syariah Court order certifying her renouncement from Islam. If there are no such channels, then it's useless to bring this kind of case to the court again next time. It just gives people a chance to sensationalize the entire issue. But then again, if no such channels exist, would it be contradictory to the Constitution of Malaysia that gives people the freedom of religious belief?

The verdict also has one profound implication -- that the Syariah Court precedes Civil Court when dealing with ALL Islam matters.

No Joy for Lina - The Verdict

(As reported from Malaysiakini.com, 30 May 2007)

Lina Joy’s long wait for her conversion to Christianity to be recognised by law is over - the Federal Court ruled today that she remains a Muslim and her religious status will not be removed from her identity card.

Delivering the judgment to a packed gallery this morning in Putrajaya, Chief Justice Ahmad Fairuz Sheikh Abdul Halim ruled that jurisdiction remains with the Syariah court.

The chief justice stated that he concurred with the majority decision - Justice Alauddin Mohd Sheriff who was the last to read his judgment agreed with Ahmad Fairuz's findings.

Justice Richard Malanjun gave a dissenting judgment.

The case hinged on a decision by the National Registration Department not to remove the word ‘Islam’ from Lina’s MyKad.

The department said it needed a syariah court order certifying her renouncement from Islam before it could make the change.

The three questions

Following this, Lina filed a suit against the NRD director-general, the government and the Federal Territory Religious Council in 2001.

After losing at both the High Court and Court of Appeal, the matter finally came to the Federal Court with these three questions:

1. Was the NRD entitled to require a person to produce a certificate or a declaration or an order from the syariah court before deleting “Islam” from his or her identity card;

2. Did the NRD correctly construe its powers under the National Registration Regulations 1990 when it imposed the above requirement, which is not expressly provided for in the regulations?; and

3. Was the landmark case Soon Singh vs Perkim Kedah – which held that syariah courts have the authority over the civil courts to hear cases of Muslims renouncing Islam – correctly decided?

Delivering the much-awaited judgment today, Ahmad Fairuz and Alauddin answered in the positive to all these three questions.

Richard however disagreed, stating that the NRD had no statutory duty to decide on apostasy.

Ahmad Fairuz said the NRD, which is in charge of issuing identity cards, had the right to demand that a syariah court certify Lina's conversion.

"On the question that the National Registration Department has the right to demand a certification from the Islamic court that confirms the appellant's renunciation of Islam, my answer is that NRD has the right," he said.

"The appeal has been rejected with cause," he added.

Shouts of Allahuakbar

A large section of the 300-strong crowd waiting outside recited the tahlil or read the Quran while waiting for the decision.

When the news reached them, they shouted Allahuakbar - their reaction resounded through the Palace of Justice.

Born to Malay parents, Joy, 43, whose Muslim name was Azlina Jailani, converted to Christianity in 1998.

The Lina Joy Case - Verdict's Tomorrow

Verdict in Muslim convert's legal battle could define Malaysia's religious identity
The Associated Press, 26 May 2007

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: Lina Joy has been disowned by her family, shunned by friends and forced into hiding — all because she renounced Islam and embraced Christianity in Muslim-majority Malaysia.

After a 7-year legal struggle, Joy will be told by Malaysia's highest court on Wednesday whether her constitutional right to choose her religion overrides an Islamic law that prohibits Malay Muslims from leaving Islam.

Either way, the verdict in the high-profile apostasy case will have profound implications on Malaysian society where Islam is increasingly conflicting with minority religions, challenging the country's reputation as a moderate Muslim and multicultural nation that guarantees freedom of worship.

"Our country is at a crossroad," Joy's lawyer, Benjamin Dawson, told The Associated Press. "Are we evolving into an Islamic state or are we going to maintain the secular character of the Constitution?"

About 60 percent of Malaysia's 26 million people are Malay Muslims, whose civil, family, marriage and personal rights are decided by Islamic Shariah courts. The minorities — the ethnic Chinese, Indians and other smaller communities — are governed by civil courts.

But the Constitution does not say who has the final say in cases such as Joy's when Islam confronts Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism or other religions.

The founding fathers of Malaysia left the Constitutional deliberately vague, unwilling to upset any of the three ethnic groups dominant at the time of independence from Britain 50 years ago, when building a peaceful multiracial nation was more important.

The situation was muddied further by the Constitution, which described Malaysia as a secular state but recognized Islam as the official religion.

Joy's case "will decide the space of religious freedom in Malaysia," said Dawson. If she wins, "it means that the constitutionally guaranteed right of freedom of religion prevails. If she loses, that means the constitutional guarantee is subservient to Islamic restrictions," he said.

Joy's decision to leave Islam sparked angry street protests by Muslim groups and led to e-mail death threats against Malik Imtiaz Sarwar, a Muslim lawyer supporting her. The widely circulated anonymous e-mail described him as a "traitor" to Islam and carried his picture with the caption "Wanted Dead."

Proselytizing of Muslims is banned in Malaysia and apostasy — as in many Islamic nations — is regarded a crime punishable by fines and jail sentences. Offenders are often sent to prison-like rehabilitation centers.

By law, all Malays have to be Muslim and few convert. Those who do prefer to keep it quiet.

Some seek legal sanction for their action, but civil courts invariably refer the case back to the Shariah courts.

But Joy, 42, has argued that she should not be bound by Shariah laws because she is a Christian.

Born Azlina Jailani, she began going to church in 1990 and was baptized eight years later. She applied for a name change on her government identity card. The National Registration Department obliged but refused to drop Muslim from the religion column.

Joy went to the High Court in May 2000 but was told to go to Shariah courts. She challenged the decision in the Court of Appeal but lost, and took it to Malaysia's highest court, the Federal Court, in 2005.

The trial ended in July 2006, but it has taken the judges until now to declare a verdict, saying a careful examination was necessary because of the sensitivity of the case.

Meanwhile, Joy has been disowned by her family and forced to quit her computer sales job after clients threatened to withdraw their business. Joy and her ethnic Indian Catholic boyfriend, known only as Johnson, went into hiding early 2006 amid fears they could be targeted by Muslim zealots, Dawson said.

"Lina is very steadfast in her belief. She is aware that her chances (of winning) are slim but she is putting her faith in God. She is just an ordinary Malaysian girl who wants to lead an ordinary life."

Joy has never made any public appearances and has rejected requests for interviews.

In a sworn statement to a lower court in 2000, Joy said she felt "more peace in my spirit and soul after having become a Christian."

Muslim groups, however, say Joy is questioning the position of Islam by taking the case to the civil courts.

"It is not about one person, it is about challenging the Islamic system in Malaysia," said Muslim Youth Movement President Yusri Mohammad, who set up a coalition of 80 Islamic groups to oppose Joy's case.

"By doing this openly, she is encouraging others to do the same. It may open the floodgates to other Muslims because once it is a precedent, it becomes an option."

If Joy wins her case, he warned, it could rend Malaysia's multiracial fabric by fomenting Muslim anger against minorities, who have largely lived in peace with Malays. There has been no racial violence in the country since the May 1969 Malay-Chinese riots that killed dozens.

Dawson said several other apostasy cases are on hold in the civil courts, pending a verdict in Joy's case.

"Both the man in the street and lawyers want to know once and for all how to draw the line between civil and Shariah courts — whether Muslims can convert and if yes, what are the procedures," he said.

Two Investment Books On Randomness

These two investment books talk about the randomness of the capital market. One is called A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing by Burton G. Malkiel and the other one is called Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

IMHO, before anyone embarks on the journey of investing, they should at least understand the concept of EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis) - An investment theory that states that it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. According to the EMH, this means that stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, and thus it is impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices.

But since capital market is not always operated at full efficiency, this provides some profit opportunities to the investors.


This book popularized the ideas that the stock market is efficient and that its prices follow a random walk. Essentially, this means that you can't beat the market. That's right - according to Malkiel, no amount of research, whether fundamental or technical, will help you in the least. Like any good academic, Malkiel backs up his argument with piles of research and statistics. It would be an understatement to say that these ideas are controversial, and many consider them just short of blasphemy. But whether you agree with Malkiel's ideas or not, it is not a bad idea to take a look at how he arrives at his theories. (http://www.investopedia.com)

This book also popularized the concept of "Buy and Hold" for long term.



In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. It addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. (Amazon.com)


No matter how well your research on the market is, the market is still prone to randomness - one cannot really predict the market. That's why some portfolio managers try to predict how much they can lose in the worst case scenario over a period of time by using a methodology called Monte Carlo Simulation.

(Note: Nassim Nicholas Taleb has a new book called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)

The Road Not Taken

(Poem by Robert Frost from his Mountain Interval collection)

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that, the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

(Afterthought: As a trekker myself, I always take the right road. Or perhaps, did I miss something? In life, whichever road you take, it really doesn't matter. Just stay the course. Don't be lost!)

The Moment of Truth - The Summit Attempt

[11th May 2007 - Winston's birthday]

Finally, the moment of truth had arrived. At 3.30am, we were all geared up and raring to go. The shuddering cold temperature was not helping at all. The other groups of trekkers had already made their final ascent to the summit of Mt Rinjani that stands at a staggering 3,726 meters. We exchanged some good luck wishes. We were the last group to ascend.

The trail was a bit different this time. It was rocky and slippery. The terrain is all made up of small pebbles and volcano ashes that vomited from the volcano eruption last time. This made our ascent quite a difficult and strenuous one as compare to the previous day. Alvin as the fittest climber amongst us, had already raced ahead with the guide Anum. Winston and I were struggling to keep pace with Alvin and Anum. We kept losing our footing because of the slippery trek that has little grip.

Somehow, we psyched ourselves up to keep on going no matter what the situation was. At one time, we even lost sight of our guide. That could not had come any worse. We just walked towards the direction of the summit and that's all we could do. We knew by that time that watching the sunrise at the summit was already out of the question. We had blown our chance. But deep inside my heart, I still keep the faith of reaching the peak whatsoever. Slowly but surely, I told myself. Winston had already making a lot of noise about the slippery trek.

Actually, we were passing some very scary and dangerous mountain ridges that lead to the summit of Mt Rinjani. But since the sun had not risen as yet, we could not really see the danger. Later, I was surprised of how dangerous that few stretches of ridges actually were when the sun had risen. It was just a tiny narrow path and with one side of the path is the almost vertical drop of few hundreds meters beneath. This was not good man. The fear factor kicked in. When I saw the real trail, I knew the summit attempt was over for me. Winston had been struggling for some times now and we decided to turn back with the summit just 30 minutes away. It was so near yet so far for us. But we knew we had made the right decision that time. Mentally, we were not prepared for this kind of trek. Bear in mind, the trek was slippery and we could plummet few hundreds meters beneath if we lose our footing at the wrong spot and at the wrong time. I have never thought of this kind of tragic death. Furthermore, it was Winston's birthday that day. Better safe than sorry.


The guide Anum to us, "Come on! The summit is almost there."



What we went through. Walking along that tiny mountain ridge took a good amount of courage from me. Haha!

Of course, Alvin managed to reach the summit not long after that. It was a marvelous and incredible achievement for him considering he had just climbed Mt Agung in Bali just four days earlier. At least, some one from our group had successfully conquered the mountain and kept our pride intact in front of other groups. Hehe...Well done Alvin! You are still the best.


View of Segara Anak crater lake from the summit



Gunung Baru that last erupted in 1994



Ol and behold! Another spectacular view from the summit


Alvin even caught up with Winston and I when we descended to the campsite at Plawangan II. This proofed how treacherous the whole descent actually was. We had to be extra cautious and be careful. At 9.30am, we managed to reach Plawangan II campsite after Alvin.

We took our breakfast and descended to the Segara Anak crater lake after that for our lunch beside the crater lake. The descent this time was not that scary but still I did not take any chances. Winston raced ahead this time but injured his knee after he stepped into a hole (or a drain as he said). Actually, I knew the spot where the incident happened and luckily I did pace myself slowly. My motto is to get back in one piece. As simple as that.


Majestic view of Gunung Baru beside Segara Anak crater lake

After lunch, we ascended to the Pos III at Senaru side of the trail. This stretch of the trail is the most difficult and energy draining of the entire Mt Rinjani trail. It is not as scary and dangerous as the summit trail. But since it was an extremely steep uphill climb, it still as treacherous and difficult. We even had to rock climb to the other side of the hill at one part. With that, we had crossed over to the other side of the trail at Senaru. I reached the Pos III campsite at Senaru at around 6.30pm. I must thank Anum for this part of the trail because he was with me all the time and his makeshift walking stick proved to be a survival gear for me. Kudos!

* All the pictures are courtesy of Alvin's.

From Sembalun Lawang to Plawangan II campsite

[10th May 2007]

The day started early. At 6.30am, we had already eaten our simple breakfast. Our guide, named Anum had already been waiting for us. He is a petite but strong guy. Mt Rinjani for him is like his second home. Anum completed all the necessary procedures with the officials and we began our climb of Mt Rinjani at 7.30am. Our goal for the day was to reach Plawangan II, the first day campsite.


Early morning view of Mt Rinjani from the valley of Sembalun Lawang



Start of the journey to conquer Mt Rinjani

Initially, the trail was not so hard to negotiate. It was pretty flat to be fair. It took us around the lower parts of Sembalun valley and we were mesmerized by the beauty and tranquility of this place. It was the picturesque view of the vast valley that kept us going and not feeling tired. The sun had already taken its throne in the sky. It was terribly hot and clear on the day.


Beautiful view of Sembalun valley

At around 12pm, we stopped at a dried river and had a deserved rest. Anum and the two porters prepared our lunch. The treat was a big portion of instant noodle that we tried very hard to finish. This was a luxury to me considering we were in the midst of utter wilderness. But hey, we had paid for it.

The climb continued at around 2pm. It seemed to me the first day climb was not that strenuous after all. It was like a stroll in the park where you could enjoy the beautiful scenery of the nature. I applied some sun blocks and drank more and more water. Luckily, I did bring some Pocari Sweat isotonic drinks with me. Hehe...


Up and up again!



Almost reaching the 1st day campsite



Lush greenery of Sembalun valley



Mysterious and tempting summit

At 4pm, we reached our first day destination -- Plawangan II campsite. It's 2900 meters above sea level. This site was just perfect. It offered the best view of Segara Anak crater lake (Danau Segara Anak) and the Gunung Baru, the small volcano that last erupted in 1994. We could see Mt Agung (3142m) in Bali from here.


Sunset at Plawangan II with Mt Agung at the background

This time, Anum and the porters prepared Gado-gado for our dinner. Gado-gado is essentially an Indonesian style rojak. And again, they prepared a big portion for us. Our initial plan of losing some extra weights had gone with this kind of treat again.

Later that night, we gazed the night sky. Since there was no light pollution and we were at a very high altitude, we could see a lot of stars that are not possible to be seen when we were at home. And I really mean it. It looked like the whole sky is covered with stars. We could see constellation Orion, Ursa Major (Big Dipper), and others. We even noticed few satellites that orbited the earth, no joke. Of course, there were shooting stars to be seen as well. But I could only seen few of them. Alvin said he had seen more than 10 shooting stars that night. Incredible! We crawled into our tents later and that brought the day to a close.

Crossing the Wallace's Line : A Travelogue

[9th May 2007]

After 6 days in Bali, Winston, Alvin and I started our journey to conquer Mt Rinjani in Lombok, an island located 35km east of Bali, Indonesia.

We rent a car and arrived at the Padangbai ferry terminal at around 11.50am for 260,000 rp, not a good deal for me. At the ferry terminal, some touts tried very hard to squeeze more out of our limited money supply. I knew their tricks for I had been traveled alone before. At one point, there was this guy who tried to out-smart us by agreeing a ferry ticket for 25,000 rp each and then charged us 50,000 rp each when he asked us to pay. We refused to pay and I really got angry with their dirty tricks and scolded them. Luckily, we managed to get the tickets for 25,000 rp (RM10) each when we approached the official ticket booth and run and hopped into the ferry just in the nick of time before the ferry raised its bridge. 12.00pm on the dot. Phew! We felt like doing Amazing Race live!

According to my trusted Lonely Planet travel book, the ferry trip should take around 3 1/2 to 4 hours depending on the sea and wind condition. So, my hope of meeting Saiful at Lembar ferry terminal at 3pm in Lombok was still very much on time. We were excited and restless. Winston and Alvin even went up to the upper deck and into the navigation room. The sea were rough, the ferry wobbled hard.

Actually, the ferry was navigating itself to cross the famous Wallace's Line* between Bali and Lombok that is separated by the deep Lombok Strait. We noticed the colour of the sea changed from blue to black at some points and that confirms how deep the Lombok Strait actually is.



Yonder! We are not crossing the Bermuda Triangle but the Wallace's Line.

Time passed us by. At 4pm, the end was still far away. We decided to send Saiful a short message to tell him to keep on waiting for us. He replied positively and we were relieved. At least, we were still on the right course.

5.30 pm, we could see the end is near. The ferry was approaching the Lembar ferry terminal and waiting to dock. The whole docking maneuver took another 30 minutes to finish. At 6pm, we were on our feet again. For a mere 25,000 rp, this ferry trip was worth every rupiah we paid for it. From far away, I could see Saiful was waiting for us. We exchanged some friendly handshakes and he took us to his brand new 1 day on-the-road van that we had the honour to first sit on it. Or so he said. It took us another 3 1/2 hours, across city roads and more so country roads to reach the valley of Sembalun Lawang, the trail head of Mt Rinjani trek.

We had our dinner and the day was gone. It took us more than 10 hours from our hotel in Bali to reach the starting point of the trek at Sembalun Lawang.


* Wallace's Line - According to the Lonely Planet: Bali & Lombok travel book, the 19th-century naturalist Alfred Russel Wallace (1823-1913) observed great differences in fauna between Bali and Lombok. In particular, there were no large mammals (elephants, rhinos, tigers etc) east of Bali and very few carnivores. He postulated that during the ice ages, when sea levels were lower, animals could have moved by land from what is now mainland Asia all the way to Bali, but deep Lombok Strait would always have been a barrier. Thus he drew a line between Bali and Lombok, which marked the biological division between Asia and Australasia. Plant life, on the other hand, does not display such a sharp division, but there is a gradual transition from predominantly Asian rain forest species to mostly Australian plants like eucalypts and acacias, which are better suited to long dry periods. Wikipedia has a good article on the Wallace's Line, do check it out.

The day when 'Traverse the Nivek's Mind' is born

Remember this date: 25th May 2007 when 'Traverse the Nivek's Mind' is born.

I've been posting blogs from time to time to kill my spare time and recently decided to get serious with blogging. For instance, more frequent posting. So, i shifted my blogs posting from Windows Live Spaces to Blogger. I hope all of you like the changes as well. Those who know me could have guessed the reason why I chose "The Nivek" as my nickname here.

Basically, 'Traverse the Nivek's Mind' will cover:

1. The thoughts that go, wander, wonder and ponder in my mind.
2. Travels and excursions that I did; with some photos to share with readers.
3. Equity investment.
4. Criticism on news and developments that happened around us, particularly my country Malaysia.
5. Sports comments, especially football (soccer for some of you) and a little bit of others.
6. Book's review.
7. My leisure activities.
8. Et cetera.

Let's get started and peace to the world. :-)